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China Merchants Securities Review
Number of clicks:685  Release date :2017-09-07
According to customs statistics, in the first 8 months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was RMB 17 trillion and 830 billion yuan, an increase of 17.1% over the same period of last year (the same below). Among them, exports of 9 trillion and 850 billion yuan, an increase of 13%; imports 7 trillion and 980 billion yuan, an increase of 22.5%; trade surplus of 1 trillion and 870 billion yuan, narrowed by 15.1%.
In August, China's total import and export volume was 2 trillion and 410 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1%. Among them, exports of 1 trillion and 350 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%; imports 1 trillion and 60 billion yuan, an increase of 14.4%; trade surplus of 286 billion 500 million yuan, narrowed by 14%.
China Merchants Securities Review August import and export data, taking into account the high base in August last month alone, this month's export growth is not unexpected low, 9 and October export growth rate picked up approximately.
In August, the export dollar value grew by 5.5% year on year, and the RMB value grew by 6.9% year on year, lower than the market expectation, the US dollar value growth rate was slightly higher than our forecast 4.9%, and fell further with the PMI new export order sub item. Considering the high base last August in a single month, the month of export growth is not unexpected, the chain export volume is $193 billion 600 million last month, an increase of $5 billion 600 million to $199 billion 200 million, means that external demand is still better, probably 9, October export growth rate rebound.
From the overseas fundamentals, the European and American developed countries have witnessed a rise in manufacturing PMI, while the global economy is still strong. However, factors such as hurricanes in the United States may have a slight impact on short-term overseas demand. The country, exports to the US and Europe, up respectively 8.4%, 5.2%, 1.1%; the ASEAN exports rose 6%, two consecutive months of improvement; in Brazil, Russia, South Africa, India exports were 24.7%, 5.9%, 1.6%, 8.5%, Russia and South Africa to restrict export growth has begun to rise by the base.
Imports in August were 13.3% compared with the same period of last year, and the growth rate of RMB value was 14.4%, slightly higher than expected, consistent with a slight rebound in imports of PMI in August. This month, the domestic commodity prices have risen, CRB index shows that in August the international commodity, industrial raw materials and metals prices rose significantly, the price factor to support the scale of imports; raw material imports QoQ each increase or decrease, iron ore imports from last month's 86 million 250 thousand tons, rose slightly to 88 million 660 thousand tons, 34 million 740 thousand tons of crude oil imports by slightly fell to 33 million 980 thousand tons, steel, copper imports basically unchanged from last month, in August 7, raw material imports overall level is low compared with the two quarter.
In August, the trade surplus was $41 billion 990 million, down $4 billion 700 million from the previous month, mainly because of a larger pick-up in imports, with an increase in import prices likely to have a greater impact.
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